2020年,中东遭遇严重疫情与超低油价的双重打击,阿拉伯世界的治理短板充分暴露,受损尤为严重。经济上,各国的石油与非油经济都深受打击,产油国和石油进口国的经济改革面临大考。政治上,2019年出现政府更迭的黎巴嫩、伊拉克、阿尔及利亚、苏丹等国的过渡与转型也各有难处。安全上,叙利亚、也门、利比亚三大战场炮声依旧,外来干预使和平前景更为复杂。在地区格局中,阿拉伯世界同时面临三大非阿拉伯强国土耳其、伊朗、以色列的打击与挤压,沙特、阿联酋等国权衡利弊,选择与以色列进一步深化关系,以求抵御伊朗和土耳其,实现自救和破局。于是,阿联酋、巴林等国选择与以色列建交。这是近30年来首次阿拉伯国家与以色列建交,是中东地缘格局巨变的结果,也将引发沙特、土耳其和伊朗及其领导阵营之间关系的新一轮调整。美国在阿以建交中发挥了重要作用,显示出美国即便在中东收缩,也仍旧是地区的主导性力量。In 2020,the Middle East was hit hard not only by the severe COVID-19 pandemic,but also by the ultra-low oil prices,which fully exposed the weak spots of the Arab world in governance.Economically,both oil and non-oil economies of these countries were worse hit,while economic reform in oil-producing and oil-importing countries faced great challenges.Politically,Lebanon,Iraq,Algeria and Sudan among others that experienced regime change in 2019 had difficulties in their respective transition and transformation.In terms of security,gunfire was still continuing in Syria,Yemen and Libya,while external interference made their peace prospect more complicated.In the regional pattern,the Arab world was simultaneously buffeted and squeezed by three non-Arab powers--Turkey,Iran and Israel.In the face of such a situation,Saudi Arabia and UAE among others,after weighing pros and cons,chose to improve relations with Israel to counter-balance Turkey and Iran,and find a way out for self-rescue.As a result,UAE and Bahrain established diplomatic relations with Israel.This is the first time in nearly 30 years that Arab states entered diplomatic relations with Israel that resulted from the drastic changes taking place in the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East,which will trigger a new round of adjustment of relations between Saudi Arabia,Turkey and Iran as well as realignment of relations among the three camps led respectively by them.The US played an important role in promoting Arab-Israel diplomatic relations,which indicated that the US still remained the dominant force in the region despite the fact that it was shrinking in the Middle East.
机构地区中国现代国际关系研究院中东研究所
出处《和平与发展》 2021年第1期114-129,135,共17页Peace and Development
关键词中东地缘格局 阿拉伯世界 美国中东政策 阿以建交
分类号D815 [政治法律—国际关系]
