摘要 本文利用2002~2018年中国HS6分位生鲜水果出口贸易数据,采用生存分析法探讨生鲜水果总体及不同品类的出口持续时间,并进一步研究SPS措施的具体贸易效应,以期为中国维持并扩大水果等特色优势农产品出口提供经验参考。研究表明,样本期内中国生鲜水果出口持续时间的中位数为2年,有60.30%的贸易段在3年内消失,且出口风险率存在负时间依存性。分品类看,鲜柑桔的出口关系较为稳定,鲜葡萄、鲜草莓的出口关系较为脆弱。贸易国SPS措施的实施显著增加了生鲜水果出口的失败风险率,其中具有政策针对性的双边“动、植物与土地保护”类SPS措施的影响最为严重。鲜梨、鲜草莓与鲜苹果出口持续时间均不同程度地受到相关多边SPS措施的抑制作用。鲜柑桔出口持续时间虽遭遇双边“动、植物与土地保护”类SPS措施的负向影响,但多边“食品安全、人类健康”类SPS措施对其产生促进作用,反映出中国鲜柑桔出口具有质量优势。此外,生存分析变量以及经济规模、竞争程度等控制变量均对生鲜水果出口具有差异化影响。 In order to provide important empirical references for China to maintain and expand exports of fruit and other agricultural products with special advantages,this article uses a survival analysis method to explore the export duration of fresh fruit in general and in different categories,based on China’s HS-6 code fresh fruit export trade data from 2002 to 2018.The results show that during the sample period,the median duration of China’s fresh fruit exports is 2 years,with 60.30%of the trade segments disappearing within 3 years,and the export risk rate has negative time dependence.By category,the export relationship of fresh citrus is relatively stable,while the export relationship of fresh grapes and fresh strawberries is more fragile.The implementation of SPS measures by trading countries has significantly increased the risk of failure of fresh fruit exports,among which the targeted bilateral SPS measures in the category of“animal,plant and land protection”have the most serious impact.The export durations of fresh pears,fresh strawberries and fresh apples are all inhibited by relevant multilateral SPS measures to varying degrees.Although the export duration of fresh citrus is severely negatively affected by bilateral SPS measures in the category of“animal,plant and land protection”,the multilateral SPS measures in the category of“food safety,human health”have a positive effect on them,reflecting the quality advantage of China’s fresh citrus exports.In addition,survival analysis variables and control variables such as economic scale and competition degree have differentiated effects.The study concludes with a number of policy implications.
机构地区 南京农业大学经济管理学院 江西财经大学经济学院
出处 《中国农村经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第12期103-122,共20页 Chinese Rural Economy
基金 国家社会科学基金重大项目“农村集体产权制度改革深化与经济发展研究”(项目编号:20ZDA045) 现代农业产业技术体系建设专用资金资助“梨产业经济研究”(项目编号:CARS-28) 江苏省社会科学基金重大项目“江苏建立健全城乡融合发展的体制机制与政策体系研究”(项目编号:K0201900192)的资助。
