摘要 公共债务在基础设施建设和城镇化进程中发挥了关键作用,但是债务风险不仅威胁财政可持续性和金融稳定,还影响国家主权信用,是经济平稳发展的重大隐患。中国公共债务的风险水平究竟如何?学术和实践层面对这个问题尚未达成一致意见。本文从国际比较的角度评估中国公共债务风险。从机构范围和金融工具两大维度界定公共债务统计口径;再分别从总体水平和债务结构进行考察,采用赤字率、负债率、长期负债能力、债权结构和层级结构等指标评估中国公共债务风险,并使用比较先进的计量分析方法检验公共债务对经济增长的门槛效应。研究发现,当前中国公共债务风险总体可控,但地方公共债务占比远高于主要发达国家以及新兴市场国家与发展中国家的平均水平,中国的长期负债能力持续减弱,中国公共债务的风险主要来自地方政府举债。鉴于此,本文进一步分析日本和意大利的地方公共债务管理经验,对中国公共债务发展趋势进行展望,为深化中国地方公共债务管理体制改革提出政策建议。 Public debt plays a key role in the process of infrastructure construction and urbanization.However,debt risk not only threatens fiscal sustainability and financial stability,but also affects national sovereign credit,which is a major potential danger for stable economic development.What is the risk level of China’s public debt?Consensus has not yet been reached among scholars and those who implement relevant policies.This study evaluates China’s public debt risk from the perspective of international comparison.First,it defines the statistical caliber of public debt from the two dimensions of institutional scope and financial instruments.Second,starting from the overall level and debt structure,it uses such indicators as deficit ratio,debt ratio,long-term debt capacity,creditor structure and hierarchical structure to evaluate China’s public debt risk,and uses an advanced econometric method to test the threshold effect of public debt on economic growth.The results show that the risk of China’s public debt is largely controllable,but the proportion of local public debt is much higher than average debt level of either the major developed countries or emerging market and developing economies.China’s long-term debt capacity continues to weaken,and the risk of China’s public debt mainly comes from local government borrowing.based on those findings,this study further analyzes the local public debt management experiences of Japan and Italy and forecasts the development trend of China’s public debt to provide policy suggestions for China to deepen the reform of local public debt management system.
机构地区 对外经济贸易大学国际经贸学院
出处 《国际经济评论》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第6期85-103,6,7,共21页 International Economic Review
基金 国家社科基金重大项目“新时代下地方政府债务风险的新特征与监管研究”(项目编号:18ZDA097)的资助。
分类号 F27 [经济管理—企业管理]
