摘要 目的分析1972—2015年广州市城区居民结直肠癌死亡率和发病率趋势并预测2016—2025年结直肠癌死亡率。方法广州市城区居民结直肠癌死亡资料分别来自广州市卫生统计局恶性肿瘤死亡登记(1972—1979年)、广州市卫生统计数据(1980—2001年)、《广州市肿瘤登记年报》(2002—2009年)和《中国肿瘤登记年报》(2010—2015年);结直肠癌发病资料来自《广州市肿瘤登记年报》(2002—2009年)和《中国肿瘤登记年报》(2010—2015年)。在上述资料中分别获取结直肠癌[国际疾病分类第10版(ICD-10)编码为C18~C21]发病和死亡数据,人口学资料来自广州市统计局。采用Joinpoint模型计算广州市城区居民1972—2015年结直肠癌死亡率和2002—2015年结直肠癌发病率年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)并分析其变化趋势。采用ARIMA模型预测2016—2025年结直肠癌死亡率。结果1972—2015年广州市城区居民结直肠癌死亡共19309例,结直肠癌粗死亡率由4.33/10万上升至24.89/10万,AAPC=4.2%(P<0.001)。2002—2015年广州市城区共报告结直肠癌新发病例24033例,结直肠癌粗发病率由22.95/10万上升至52.81/10万,AAPC=6.6%(P<0.001)。预测2016—2025年广州市城区居民结直肠癌死亡率逐年升高,2025年将达到29.53/10万。结论1972—2015年广州市城区居民结直肠癌死亡率和2002—2015年结直肠癌发病率均呈上升趋势,2016—2025年死亡率仍将升高。 Objective To analyze the trend of mortality and incidence of colorectal cancer among urban residents in Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015 and to predict the mortality of colorectal cancer from 2016 to 2025.Methods The mortality data of colorectal cancer among urban residents in Guangzhou were collected from the death registration of malignant tumors of Guangzhou Health Statistics Bureau(1972-1979),Guangzhou Health Statistics(1980-2001),Guangzhou Cancer Registration Annual Report(2002-2009)and China Cancer Registration Annual Report(2010-2015).The incidence of colorectal cancer was collected from Guangzhou Cancer Registration Annual Report(2002-2009)and China Cancer Registration Annual Report(2010-2015).The incidence and mortality data of colorectal cancer coded as C18-C21 in 10th Edition of International Classification of Diseases(ICD-10)were obtained from the above data,and the demographic data were from the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics.Joinpoint model was used to calculate the annual change percentage(APC)and average annual change percentage(AAPC)of colorectal cancer mortality and incidence among urban residents in Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015 and from 2002 to 2015.ARIMA model was used to predict colorectal cancer mortality from 2016 to 2025.Results There were 19309 colorectal cancer deaths among urban residents in Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015.The crude mortality rate of colorectal cancer increased from 4.33/100000 to 24.89/100000(AAPC=4.2%,P<0.001).A total of 24033 new cases of colorectal cancer were reported in Guangzhou from 2002 to 2015.The crude incidence rate of colorectal cancer increased from 22.95/100000 to 52.81/100000(AAPC=6.6%,P<0.001).The mortality rate of colorectal cancer among urban residents of Guangzhou would continuously increase from 2016 to 2025 and reach 29.53/100000 in 2025.Conclusion The mortality rate of colorectal cancer among urban residents of Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015 and the incidence rate of colorectal cancer from 2002 to 2015 both show an upward trend.The mortality rate wil
出处 《中华预防医学杂志》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2021年第5期640-645,共6页 Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
分类号 R73 [医药卫生—肿瘤]
