摘要 针对我国"十四五"规划拟定"设立碳排放总量控制体系,逐步向碳排放的绝对量减排过渡"的目标,运用季度GDP、工业增加值等指标,构建基于宏观经济指标的混频数据模型ADL-MIDAS,对不确定性冲击下我国"十四五"期间二氧化碳排放总量及结构进行预测分析。结论表明,2021年全国碳排放量增速达到3.71%,较过去略有加快,而中期则呈现出低于2%的增长水平,并有负增长态势。预计到2025年,全国二氧化碳总排量接近115亿吨。较"十三五"时期相比,碳排放结构基本稳定,其中第二产业比重为82%~85%,较过去有1%的反弹,第三产业比重微幅降至14%以下,但交通物流产业碳排量增速显著。实证结果还表明,未来一段时间内经济增长的相对提速反而有利于降低碳排放。总体而言,中国碳排放量未来短期内略有反弹,但中长期增速仍将持续放缓。 In view of the goal of"establishing a total carbon emission control system and gradually transiting to an absolute carbon emission reduction",using the mixed frequency data of quarterly GDP,industrial value-added data and other macroeconomic indicators,this paper employed the mixed-frequency ADL-MIDAS model to analyze and predict China’s total carbon dioxide emissions and structure during the 14 th Five Year Plan period under the impact of uncertainty.The results show that the growth rate of China’s carbon emissions in 2021 will reach3.71%,slightly faster than in the past,while in the medium term,it will show a growth level of less than 2%,with a negative growth trend.It is estimated that by 2025,China’s total carbon dioxide emissions will be close to 11.5 billion tons.Compared with the 13 th Five-Year Plan,the carbon emission structure is basically stable.The proportion of the secondary industry is 82%~85%,rebounding by 1% from the past.The proportion of the tertiary industry slightly drops to less than 14%,but the carbon emission of the transportation and logistics industry increases significantly.In addition,the study also shows that China’s faster economic growth will help to reduce carbon emissions.In general,China’s emission reduction measures have achieved remarkable results,and there will be a slight rebound in short term,but the medium and long-term growth rate will continue to slow down.
机构地区 山西财经大学统计学院 厦门大学经济学院
出处 《经济问题》 北大核心 2021年第4期31-40,共10页 On Economic Problems
基金 国家统计局项目“我国横向生态补偿机制指标体系构建与实施路径研究”(2019LY100) 山西省软科学项目“地域联动视阈下山西省生态环境保护机制研究”(2018041004-2) 山西省哲学社会科学规划课题“环境规制对山西省产业结构调整的污染溢出与涟漪效应研究”(2019B189)。
关键词 碳排放量 碳排放结构 ADL-MIDAS模型 混频数据预测 total carbon emission carbon emission structure ADL-MIDAS model mixed-frequency forecasting
分类号 F426 [经济管理—产业经济]
