摘要 我国作为猪肉生产大国、消费大国,猪肉价格波动事关普通百姓生活。利用2001—2019年猪肉价格省级面板数据,对猪肉价格长期波动的空间差异性进行了分析。结果表明:①从我国八大经济区及调入区、调出区猪肉价格区域差异测度结果来看,北部沿海区域内各省份猪肉价格差异最大,东北区域和长江中游区域差异较小;同时从猪肉价格差异贡献率来看,区域内差异贡献率更大。②从猪肉价格波动时空演进测度结果来看,地区间差异明显存在,同时各省份之间空间集聚性呈现出波动状态,表现出先减弱后增强的长期趋势。③从对猪肉价格周期性变化规律分析结果来看,价格波动存在明显的周期性,“猪瘟”、重大疫情等突发因素短期影响作用较大,而常规因素的影响才是价格波动真正推手。④在所筛选的猪肉价格常规影响因素中,育肥猪配合饲料价格、仔猪价格、地区生产总值引起猪肉价格差异的作用显著,且育肥猪配合饲料价格对猪肉价格差异影响程度最大。 China was a major producer and consumer of pork,pork price fluctuations are related to the lives of ordinary people.This paper used the provincial panel data of pork prices from 2001 to 2019 to analyze the spatial differences of long-term fluctuations in pork prices.The results showed that:①Judging from the measurement results of the regional differences in pork prices in China′s 8 major economic zones and transfer-in and transfer-out regions,pork prices in the northern coastal regions had the largest differences,the northeastern region and the middle reaches of the Changjiang River were smaller.At the same time,the contribution rate of the pork price difference reflected the greater contribution rate of the regional difference.②From the measurement results of spatiotemporal evolution of pork price fluctuation,there were obvious regional differences,and the spatial agglomeration among provinces showed a fluctuating state,showing a long-term trend of weakening first and then strengthening.③From the analysis results of the cyclical changes in pork prices,It was found that price fluctuations have obvious periodicity.Sudden factors such as“swine fever”and major epidemics have a greater short-term impact,while the impact of conventional factors is the real driving force of price fluctuations.④Among the conventional factors that affect the price of pork,the price of compound feed for finishing pigs,the price of piglets,and the regional GDP had a significant effect on the difference in pork prices,and the price of compound feed for finishing pigs had the greatest impact on the difference in pork prices.
机构地区 西北政法大学管理学院
出处 《资源开发与市场》 CAS 2021年第4期445-451,共7页 Resource Development & Market
基金 陕西省高等教育教学改革研究项目(编号:19BY087) 国家社会科学基金西部项目(编号:17XJY018) 教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(编号:19YJAZH076)。
关键词 猪肉价格 波动周期 时空演进 空间差异 pork price fluctuation cycle temporal and spatial evolution spatial difference
分类号 F326 [经济管理—产业经济]
