摘要基于1988-2019年我国社会因素类、居民经济因素类、教育因素类相关数据,运用自相关模型,预测影响中等职业教育师生规模的关键因素;运用多元线性回归模型,预测"十四五"期间我国中等职业教育专任教师规模、各学历层次专任教师规模、"双师型"教师规模、专业课教师规模、"双师型"教师占专业课教师的比例和学生规模,得出教师严重短缺、职普差距加大、外聘教师不足、教师学历层次高移、"双师型"教师需求强烈、学生规模日益扩大等结论,提出需要扩大中职学生规模、提升教师学历层次、提高"双师型"教师比例、优化教师队伍结构的政策建议,以期为谋划"十四五"我国中等职业教育发展目标、促进职业教育现代化提供参考。based on the data of social factors,resident economic factors and educational factors from 1988 to 2019 in China,the key factors that affect the scale of teachers and students in secondary vocational education is predicted by the self-correlation model.Using multiple linear regression model,a series of data are predicted,such as the number of full-time teachers,the number of full-time teachers at all levels,the number of double-qualified teachers,the number of in specialized courses,the proportion between the double-qualified teachers and the teachers in specialized courses and the number of students in secondary vocational education during the period of the 14th fiveyear plan.The result shows a serious shortage of teachers,a widening gap between vocational education and general education,a shortage of part time-teachers,improving the educational level of teachers,a great demand for"double-qualified"teachers and an increasing scale of students.This paper puts forward some policy suggestions,such as enlarging the scale of secondary vocational school students,raising the level of teachers’education,increasing the proportion of"double-qualified"teachers,and optimizing the structure of teachers,with a view to planning China’s secondary vocational education development goals during the"14th Five-Year Plan";"14th Five-Year Plan"period and promoting the vocational education modernizing.
机构地区天津职业技术师范大学战略规划办公室战略研究科 天津大学教育学院 天津职业技术师范大学
出处《职业技术教育》 北大核心 2021年第6期20-32,共13页Vocational and Technical Education
基金2019年天津市教育工作重点调研课题“硕士研究生层次‘双师型’职业教育教师培养模式研究”(JYDY20191037),主持人:刘新钰 2020年天津市哲学社会科学规划课题“教育硕士(职业技术教育领域)专业学位研究生教育内部质量保证体系研究”(TJJX20019),主持人:董显辉 2020年玉溪市社会科学立项课题“玉溪市深化职业教育‘双师型’教师培养对策研究”(Yxsk241),主持人:单文周
关键词中等职业教育 师生规模预测 自相关模型 多元线性回归模型 “十四五”时期secondary vocational education forecasting of teacher-student scale self-correlation model multiple linear regression model
分类号G715.1 [文化科学—职业技术教育学]
