摘要 基于中国制造业企业层面数据,本文研究汇率变动通过国内生产链对非贸易企业就业规模的影响。通过理论推导,我们提出汇率变动影响非贸易企业就业的三条主要渠道:进口竞争、国内生产链的上游传导和下游传导。通过经验分析发现,汇率变动通过国内生产链对非贸易制造业企业就业产生的影响高于进口竞争渠道。基准结果在一系列稳健性检验下仍然成立。我们还发现汇率变动会更多地影响非技能型劳动力以及女性劳动力,对工人工资的影响也非常显著。当人民币升值时,更多的劳动力会从高成本加成能力的企业流向低成本加成能力的企业,同一行业内的非贸易企业就业与成本加成率的分散度增加,造成行业层面的资源配置效率下降。 Using Chinese firm-level data,this paper explores how exchange rate shocks affect employment in non-tradable firms across domestic production chains.According to the theoretical formulation,there are three main transmission channels through which exchange rate movements affect a non-tradable firm's employment:the import competition channel and upstream and downstream transmission channels from the perspective of industrial linkages.Through empirical analysis,employment elasticity with respect to exchange rate movement is found to be greater through industrial linkages than through import competition channels.The baseline results strongly support the theory and remain valid after a series of robustness tests.It is also noted that exchange rate shocks have a greater effect on unskilled and female labour,and the exchange rate elasticity of wages is significant.When RMB appreciates,more workers move from higher-markup firms to lower-markup firms,and dispersions in employment and markup are greater,leading to a resource reallocation distortion.
出处 《世界经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第11期152-175,共24页 The Journal of World Economy
基金 国家自然科学基金青年项目(71703078) 国家自然科学基金应急管理项目(71850005) 中央财经大学2019年一流学科建设项目——“全球价值链背景下国际贸易理论与政策的重新审视” 青年英才项目(QYP2002) 青蓝科研团队的资助支持。
关键词 汇率 就业 国内生产链 成本加成 资源配置 exchange rate movements employment domestic production chains markup resource reallocation
分类号 F83 [经济管理—金融学]
