摘要 为弥补货币政策传导机制中忽略微观主体预期不足,本文基于货币政策能够改变私人部门信念的假设前提,构建混频动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,揭示货币政策传导机制中信息效应这一关键路径,利用未预期货币政策冲击的作用效应,量化识别未预期货币政策的非中性。研究表明,未预期紧缩性货币政策冲击的传导机制中存在信息效应路径,能够向私人部门传递经济向好发展的信念,有利于产出增长与股票价格上升的预期。相比货币政策行动,货币政策语言提升私人部门信念的能力与信息效应更强,而且货币政策语言的透明度越高,向私人部门传递的信息越明确,引起未预期货币政策冲击的信息效应越小,越有利于提高传统货币政策有效性。 In order to address the reality that the monetary policy marginal utility is weakening and compensate for neglecting the expectation of micro subjects in the monetary policy transmission mechanism,this paper constructs a mixed-frequency dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model.This is based on the assumption that monetary policy can change private sector beliefs to theoretically reveal the key path of the information effect on the monetary policy transmission mechanism.The paper further discusses the effect of unexpected monetary policy shocks to quantitatively identify unexpected monetary policy non-neutrality.The results show that there is an information effect path in the transmission mechanism of unexpected shocks due to the monetary policy tightening,which can convey belief in“good economic development”to the private sector,favouring the expected output growth and the rise in stock prices.Compared to monetary policy actions,monetary policy language has a greater capacity to enhance private sector beliefs and information effect.The“meeting”event is the strongest,followed by the“report release”event.In addition,the greater the monetary policy language transparency,the clearer the message delivered to the private sector,hence an unexpected monetary policy shock will cause less information effect,improving the traditional monetary policy efficiency.
机构地区 吉林大学数量经济研究中心 吉林大学商学院
出处 《世界经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2020年第11期176-200,共25页 The Journal of World Economy
基金 国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573104) 吉林大学青年学术领袖培育计划项目(2019FRLX10) 吉林大学廉政建设专项研究项目(2020LZY014) 吉林大学研究生创新基金资助项目(101832018C159)的资助。
关键词 货币政策行动与语言 非中性 信息效应 混频DSGE模型 monetary policy actions and language non-neutrality information effects mixed-frequency DSGE model
分类号 F82 [经济管理—财政学]
