摘要 为有效探究风险因素在公交系统事故中的作用规律,将系统风险分析工具——Tropos目标风险框架引入到公交系统事故分析中,构建Tropos公交事故分析模型。模型基于目标导向,通过设置目标层、事件层及处理层的方式,层次性地完成系统建模,并通过描述参与者之间的依赖关系构建风险传递途径。以重庆市坠江事故为例对模型建立方法进行实际验证,事故分析结果显示:重庆公交坠江事故深层原因是公交系统整体偏差所致,并据此在系统整体层面上探讨公交系统安全管理策略,提出11项提升公交系统安全性的改进措施。研究结果表明:Tropos公交事故分析模型能较好地适应公交系统事故分析,可为管理者提供合理的安全建议。 In order to explore the role of risk factors in the public transport system accidents,the Troops goal-risk framework is introduced into the public transport system accident analysis,and the public transport system risk analysis model is constructed.The model is based on the goal orientation.Through the way of setting the goal layer,event layer and processing layer,the system modeling is completed hierarchically,and the risk transfer path is constructed by describing the dependency between participants.In this paper,the method of establishing the model is demonstrated by taking Chongqing river drop accident as an example.The result of accident analysis shows that the deep cause of Chongqing river drop accident is caused by the overall deviation of the public transportation system.based on this,the safety management strategy of the public transportation system is discussed,and 11 improvement measures to improve the safety of the public transportation system are put forward.The research result shows that Tropos goal-risk framework can adapt to the public transportation accident analysis,which can provide reasonable safety suggestions for managers.
出处 《交通科技与经济》 2021年第3期9-15,共7页 Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications
基金 国家自然科学基金项目(71173177) 西南交通大学“双一流”建设项目(JDSYLYB2018029)。
关键词 公共交通安全 公交事故 Tropos目标风险框架 系统事故致因分析 重庆坠江事故 public transport safety bus accident Troops goal-risk framework accident analysis Chongqing bus accident
