摘要 为有效规避隧道内运输危险品的潜在风险,提出一种半开放隧道内易爆危险品运输的风险度量方法。考虑易爆危险品在爆炸时会对周围人员及设施造成伤害,为更好地确定运输的潜在风险源,根据半开放隧道的工程结构特点,基于冲击波理论和事故伤害模型的建模理念,构建风险度量数学模型,并进行风险公理验证。通过算例和敏感性分析,验证新模型的有效性,数据分析结果表明:相较于传统风险度量模型,新模型考虑的因素更全面、计算结果更符合实际情况;新模型对于危险品运输量的敏感度较强,计算结果变化趋势更符合参数的鲁棒变化规律。 In order to avoid the potential risk derived from the dangerous goods transportation in the tunnel,a new methodology of risk assessment for the explosive dangerous goods transportation in the semi-open tunnel is developed in this paper.based on the characteristics of the explosive goods,the potential risk source during the transportation is verified.According to the contracture characteristics of the semi-open tunnel,the main factors affecting the corresponding transportation risks are analyzed,and the related definition of the risk is proposed,which proves to be feasible for the three axioms of the transportation risk.based on the shockwave theory and accident injury model,a new risk assessment is formulated.The workability of the proposed model is demonstrated by the provided tests.The computational result shows that,compared with the traditional risk assessment,the proposed model has more comprehensive consideration factors and the obtained results are more suitable for the actual situation.The proposed model has a strong sensitivity on the quantity of the dangerous goods transportation,and the variation trend obtained meets the robustness of the related parameters.
出处 《交通科技与经济》 2021年第3期16-21,共6页 Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications
基金 国家自然科学基金项目(61803091) 广东省自然科学基金项目(2016A030310263) 广东省大学生国家级创新创业训练计划项目(201911845040) 广东省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201811845126)。
关键词 易爆危险品 半开放隧道 运输风险 风险度量 事故伤害模型 explosive dangerous goods semi-open tunnel transportation risk risk assessment accident injury model
