摘要 京津冀经济发展与水资源利用“脱钩”,已成为京津冀政府管理部门和学者们高度关注的学术热点和研究领域。现有文献主要采用经典的脱钩判别框架,偏重于京津冀地区用水总量、工业用水的短时序脱钩态势评价与驱动效应研究。鲜有学者在脱钩评价模式中凸显双控行动的导向性作用,统筹考虑不同规划期京津冀地区经济发展与行业用水的脱钩关系,揭示京津冀地区经济发展与行业用水脱钩的内在机理。为此,基于驱动力-压力-响应分析视角,构建双控行动下京津冀经济发展与水资源利用脱钩评价模式。采用Tapio弹性系数法,动态对比评价不同规划期京津冀地区及其行业经济发展与水资源利用的脱钩态势。采用完全分解模型,通过京津冀地区不同行业用水脱钩的驱动因素分解,深度解析京津冀地区经济发展与行业用水脱钩的内在机理。研究表明:①河北双控行动成效显著,北京次之,天津较弱。京津冀整体经济发展与水资源利用自“十五”时期开始呈现稳定的“强脱钩”态势。但京津地区仍处于“弱脱钩”态势,而河北呈现“强脱钩”态势。其中,京冀地区工农业经济发展与水资源利用呈现较稳定的“强脱钩”态势。河北对京津冀整体用水、北京服务业对北京用水、津冀地区工农业对津冀地区用水的“强脱钩”影响显著。②京津冀地区行业用水的技术进步效应显著,成为推动京津冀地区用水脱钩的关键驱动因素,而结构调整效应仍未发挥显著作用。仅至“十三五”前半段,京津冀地区农业用水的结构调整效应显著,成为实现京津冀地区农业经济发展与其用水脱钩的关键驱动因素之一。但京津冀地区服务业仍未达到用水顶峰和用水增量“拐点”,亟须通过提升水利科技创新能力,提高服务业用水强度,加速服务业结构转型升级,发挥结构调整效应对服务业用 The‘decoupling’between the economic development and water resources utilization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has become an academic hot spot and research field of great concern to the administrative departments in the governments of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei and relevant scholars.The existing literature mainly uses the classic framework of decoupling discrimination,focusing on the total amount of water resources utilization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,or short-term decoupling situation evaluation and decoupling effect of industrial water resources utilization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Few scholars have emphasized the guiding role of dual control action in the evaluation mode of decoupling,took the decoupling relationship between the economic development and industrial water resources utilization of different plan periods in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as a whole consideration,and revealed the internal driving mechanism of water resources utilization decoupling in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Therefore,based on the analysis perspective of driving force-pressure-response,this study constructs the evaluation mode of decoupling between economic development and water resources utilization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under dual control action.The Tapio elastic coefficient method is used to dynamically compare and evaluate the decoupling situation of economic development and water resources utilization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its industries in different planning periods.The internal driving mechanism of water resources utilization decoupling is analyzed in depth through the driving factor decomposition of different industries in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The results show that:①Dual control action in Hebei has significant effect,followed by Beijing and Tianjin.Since beginning of the the Tenth Five-Year Plan period,the overall economic development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei has shown a stable‘strong decoupling’trend from water resources utilizati
出处 《中国人口·资源与环境》 CSCD 北大核心 2021年第3期150-160,共11页 China Population,Resources and Environment
基金 北京市社会科学基金青年项目“京津冀协同发展评价体系与对策研究”(批准号:17GLC064) 北京市自然科学基金面上项目“京津冀协同发展下水资源与产业结构双向优化适配研究”(批准号:9202005) 国家自然科学基金青年项目“三条红线刚性约束下流域初始水权分配模式与优化分配模型研究”(批准号:71603004) 教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目“双控行动下用水量库兹涅茨曲线预测及空间差异驱动效应研究”(批准号:17YJC790194) 北方工业大学毓优人才项目“科技创新视角下京津冀资源能耗管理绩效及其协同治理能力评价体系研究”(批准号:203051360020XN189/014)。
关键词 京津冀 水资源利用 脱钩 模式 驱动因素 机理 Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region water resources utilization decoupling mode driving factor mechanism
